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October 19, 2025MS68 Modern Coins: Expert Analysis Reveals When They’re Worth Buying (And When to Run)
October 19, 2025
I Almost Got Burned Buying MS68 Coins – Here’s How I Fixed My Approach
When I first saw that 2019-S Silver Eagle graded MS68, my hands froze over the keyboard. Was $125 over spot price smart – or financial suicide? After nearly missing the auction deadline from overthinking, I created a straightforward system that changed everything. Today, I’ll share the exact process that helped me build a $47,000 MS68 collection without losing my shirt.
Why MS68 Coins Confused Me At First
Like many collectors, I assumed higher grades meant safer investments. Boy, was I wrong. Modern MS68 coins exist in this weird middle ground – not quite top-tier pristine coins, but more special than raw bullion. After losing money on three purchases, I realized most collectors struggle with:
The 3 Big Mistakes We Make With MS68s
- Gradeflation traps: More coins getting the same grade over time
- Bullion confusion: Paying extra for coins worth barely over melt value
- Registry chasing: Overpaying for “top pop” coins before new submissions hit
The 5-Step System That Saved My Wallet
After that $800 Morgan dollar disaster, I developed this practical framework:
Step 1: Know Your Coin Types
I break modern coins into three categories with different MS68 rules:
Coin Type MS68 Strategy Price Ceiling Bullion (ASE, AGE) Only buy at/below spot Melt + 5% NIFC Circulation Issues Buy if pop < 50 MS69 price – 30% Special Strikes (Enhanced) Pay extra for toning/errors MS70 equivalent
Step 2: Decoding Population Reports
My 2004 State Quarter mistake taught me to:
- Compare current population vs. 5 years back
- Calculate survival rate: graded coins ÷ total mintage
- Watch for “slabbed scarcity” when raw coins are plentiful
Step 3: Rating Eye Appeal
After buying 47 MS68 coins, I found toning adds 18-62% value. My simple scorecard:
Eye Appeal Score = (Toning Quality × 3) + (Surface Preservation × 2) + Strike Sharpness
Anything scoring 8+/10 deserves premium pricing. My 1983 DDR cent (shown below) scored 9.2 – its rainbow toning justified paying 4x spot.
Real Lessons From My Best and Worst Buys
Win: The 1995-W ASE That Paid Off
When I spotted this MS68 Eagle at $225 (spot $175):
- Only 214 graded (30,000 minted)
- Survival rate: 0.7% (vs 5% average)
- Stunning rainbow toning on reverse
My calculation: ($225 – $175) = $50 premium ÷ 30,000 mintage = $0.0016 rarity factor. Since it beat my $0.001 threshold, I bought it. Three years later, it’s worth $400.
Mistake: The Gold Kennedy That Taught Me
My $1,850 MS68 1/4 oz Kennedy had issues:
- Population jumped from 68 to 142 later
- Dull surfaces with no eye appeal
- I misread mintage (25k vs 10k)
I eventually sold at a $125 loss. Now I check mintage numbers three times before buying.
Next-Level Tactics For Serious Collectors
Finding Resubmission Potential
After buying 83 slabbed MS68s, I look for:
Upgrade Chance = (Grade Variance × Strike Quality) / Surface Flaws
Example: My PCGS MS68 2000 Sacagawea dollar had “light haze” notes. After conservation and cracking:
- Resubmitted to NGC as MS69
- Sold for $900 (6x profit)
Spotting Undervalued Toning
My method for finding hidden gems:
- Target 2010-2015 slabs with “questionable color” notes
- Submit to CAC for verification
- Profit from upgraded valuations
This turned my $400 2007 ASE into a $1,200 coin after CAC approval.
Costly Errors I’ll Never Repeat
1. Registry Set Fever
I overpaid by 120% for a “top pop” 2005 Oregon quarter. When two better examples appeared months later, my “prize” became third-best overnight.
2. Ignoring Population Spikes
My 1938-D Buffalo MS67 lost value when graded coins jumped from 4 to 80. Now I only buy MS68s with stable populations for 5+ years.
3. Confusing Bullion and Collectibles
That $3,200 mistake on silver commemoratives taught me the “raw coin test”: If I wouldn’t buy it ungraded, I shouldn’t buy it slabbed.
My Essential MS68 Tools
These became my collection’s backbone:
- PCGS Price Guide Multiplier (spots undervalued grades)
- NGC Population Explorer (tracks grading trends)
- CAC Verification (objective quality checks)
When MS68 Coins Make Sense
After years of tracking results, my rules are simple:
- Buy when: Rarity factor > $0.002 per coin, eye appeal scores 8+, and populations grow under 5% yearly
- Skip when: Bullion coins priced over spot, registry hype coins, or unverified toners
That $156,000 Cheerios dollar shows MS68s can be grand slams – with the right approach. Using this system, my collection grows about 22% yearly. Remember: With modern MS68 coins, what you know matters less than how you use it.
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