Navigating the Maze of Overpriced Ancient Coins: My Personal Insights

I’ve been immersed in ancient coin collecting for decades, and one topic that never fails to spark heated debates is the perceived overpricing of certain classics. Lately, I’ve been reflecting on my own experiences and market observations, and I want to share some candid thoughts on which coins feel inflated and why—plus how to navigate this tricky landscape.

Ancient Coins That Often Feel Overpriced

In my collecting journey, I’ve encountered several coins that seem excessively priced given their abundance. Here’s a rundown of the usual suspects and why they raise eyebrows:

• Athenian Owls: These are everywhere—tens of thousands exist, and auctions feature dozens regularly. Yet, they routinely sell for 500+ euros. Rumors of massive hoards suggest they should be cheaper, but demand keeps prices high.
• Alexander Tetradrachms and Drachms: I’m so tired of seeing hundreds at every auction; I often scroll right past. Despite hoard discoveries, prices haven’t dropped much, making them feel overvalued.
• Tyrian Shekels and Tiberius Denarii: Biblical associations like “Thirty Pieces of Silver” or “Tribute Pennies” inflate prices, but they’re not rare. I’ve seen common variants sell at premiums that don’t match their availability.
• Tetradrachms of Tigranes II of Armenia: A major hoard was found recently, yet prices stay stubbornly high as it’s trickled slowly into the market. As an admirer of the design, I’ve held off buying because the cost feels unjustified.
• Augustus Denarius with Lucius and Gaius: This type seems to dominate existing Augustus coins, but prices don’t reflect how common it is, which puzzles me.

Why Prices Don’t Always Reflect Rarity

From what I’ve observed, several factors drive this disconnect. Hoard discoveries, like those for Lydian staters or Persian darics, flood the market but prices lag due to slow releases. Collector popularity plays a huge role—just as with the 1907 High Relief St. Gaudens $20 gold coin in the US, high demand sustains premiums even for abundant coins. Biblical or historical significance can artificially inflate values, as seen with “Widow’s Mites” prutot. Also, world coins often feel underpriced compared to US coinage; I’ve noticed they’d need to rise 200% to match US prices for similar rarity.

When Underpricing Works in Your Favor

Counterintuitively, I often find ancient coins underpriced, especially when considering factors like provenance, rarity variants, and long-term preservation value. For instance, I once snagged a Trajan coin at a reserve price after it went unsold in an auction. It turned out to be a rare BALINEUM variant, linked to the Wetterstrom and Garrett collections and published in key references. If it had been cheaper, someone else might have bought it before I recognized its significance—a reminder that value is subjective. I’ve also felt genuine relief when coins weren’t priced lower, as it gave me a chance to acquire them.

On the flip side, I’ve missed out on coins that sold too quickly and wished they were pricier to deter others. This highlights the importance of grading and authentication: always scrutinize details like architectural elements on reverses, as debates over identifications (e.g., whether a BALANION legend refers to a bath or a shrine) can impact value. For example, coins with misattributed features might be overhyped, while correctly identified rarities are bargains.

Practical Advice for Smart Collecting

Based on my missteps and wins, here’s my go-to advice for avoiding overpays and spotting deals:

• Track hoard news and auction trends: Sites like RPC Online help identify variants and rarity. If a hoard is reported, be patient—prices may drop as supply increases.
• Focus on provenance and references: Coins with documented histories or ties to famous collections often hold value better. I always cross-check with resources like RPC or Emmett catalogs.
• Set alerts for unsold lots: As I did with that Trajan coin, waiting for auctions to end can reveal gems at reserve prices. It’s saved me from overbidding.
• Beware of fakes and tooled coins: I’ve seen eBay listings for “rare” coins at $20,000 that turned out fake. Always verify with trusted dealers and look for signs of tampering.
• Consider underpriced opportunities: Keep an eye out for undervalued rarities, like certain aurei. I once found a unique Valerian and Gallienus aureus that was shockingly affordable, proving deals exist if you hunt diligently.

In the end, coin pricing is deeply personal—what feels overpriced to me might be a steal to another collector. My philosophy? Collect what fascinates you, prioritize historical significance, and enjoy the thrill of the hunt. After all, every coin tells a story worth more than its price tag.