Silver Prices Up, Numismatic Values Down: I Analyzed 3 Years of Morgan Dollar Data to Find the Best Strategy

I Tracked Silver Coins for 3 Years – Here’s What Surprised Me Most

When silver prices climbed $30/oz while my generic Morgan dollars stayed stubbornly at $90, I had to figure out why. Like many collectors, I assumed rising metal prices would lift all ships. Turns out I was wrong. After combing through auction results (I checked PCGS values every morning with my coffee) and talking to dealers at coin shows, I discovered something fascinating about how numismatic values really behave during bullion runs.

The Coin Collector’s Dilemma

Let’s break down the math that first confused me:

• Each Morgan contains 0.7735oz of silver
• That $30 silver jump should add about $23 per coin
• But my 1881-S Morgans in MS-63? Still $90

Where Did the Premium Go?

Tracking actual sales revealed a clear trend – when metal prices surge, collectors suddenly become bargain hunters. Here’s what happened to other coins:

• Common Saint-Gaudens in MS65 now sell for just $100 over spot (half their old premium)
• $3 gold Princess coins lost numismatic value even as gold prices doubled
• Even CAC-approved rarities like the 1896 Liberty DE stalled at $6,000

Putting 3 Strategies Head-to-Head

1. Pure Bullion Approach (Left Money on the Table)

Generic rounds mirrored spot prices perfectly, but here’s what they couldn’t do:

• Capture upside when numismatic markets rebounded
• Offer protection during silver’s 2022 30% correction

2. The Middle Path (My Personal Winner)

Targeting CAC-approved coins between $2,000-$10,000 proved surprisingly resilient:

• MS64 Morgans acted like shock absorbers during price drops
• 62CAC coins gained 75% while gold jumped 130% – but with less volatility
• Always found buyers, even when markets got shaky

3. Trophy Coin Strategy (Only for Experts)

While MS63 MCMVII High Relief coins held value, consider this:

• Requires expertise most collectors don’t have
• Could take years to sell during market dips
• Moved independently from silver’s rollercoaster ride

What Your Coin Portfolio Needs Now

“Rising metal prices create collector opportunities – if you know where to look”

• Buy Window: When silver jumps 50%+ yearly, shop for CAC-approved coins
• Exit Sign: When premiums blow past historical norms (currently 15-20% over melt for MS63 Morgans)
• Sweet Spot: PCGS/CAC coins at 1.5-3x melt offer the best balance

The Silver Market’s Hidden Message

After three years of spreadsheets and auction tracking, here’s my biggest takeaway: coins aren’t bullion. When metal prices run, collector premiums often shrink to keep final prices stable. This creates rare chances to buy quality pieces at relative discounts. Right now, certified coins in that $2,000-$10,000 range offer something I haven’t seen since 2013 – actual value.

Related Resources

You might also find these related articles helpful:

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