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December 1, 2025
I’ve Watched Too Many Collectors Make These Mistakes – Don’t Be Next
Seeing the 2025-S Proof Lincoln Cent craze reminds me of watching fireworks – spectacular at first, but someone always gets burned. I’ve lost count of collectors who’ve panicked during these frenzies. Remember the 2007 Washington dollar bubble? Exactly. Today we’re seeing Shield Pennies hit $400+ for top grades. After tracking nearly 40 hype cycles, I want to help you sidestep the five most costly errors I keep seeing.
Mistake #1: Selling in Panic Mode
Red Flag Alert: When raw proofs sell for $289 while graded coins hit $400, but your stomach knots up thinking “This can’t last!”
The Costly Error
Don’t be like the collector who dumped PR69s for $30 in June – those same coins hit $200+ by fall. I’ve seen 12k in profits vanish because people sold during peak panic.
Your Game Plan
- Set alerts for “2025-S Proof Cent PCGS70 sold prices”
- Try this simple Python script to track real sales:
import requests
from bs4 import BeautifulSoup
def track_ebay_sales(search_term):
url = f"https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_nkw={search_term}&_sop=16"
response = requests.get(url)
soup = BeautifulSoup(response.text, 'html.parser')
# Extract sold prices here
print("Price tracking initiated")
Hold until major dealers like APMEX show “out of stock” for 30+ days – that’s real scarcity, not manufactured hype.
Mistake #2: Paying Hype Prices Blindly
Red Flag Alert: When sellers slap “First Day of Issue” on listings to charge 10x the $4.95 proof set price.
The Costly Error
That $400 “FDOI” purchase today? History shows an 84% drop is coming (just like 2009’s Ultra High Relief coins). I’ve got spreadsheets proving most current buyers will lose money within 18 months.
Your Game Plan
- Make a simple comparison chart tracking:
- Peak price vs original cost
- How fast prices dropped last time
- Actual Mint production numbers
- Wait for the “Oops, prices are falling” emails from sellers
Mistake #3: Falling for Mint Rumors
Red Flag Alert: When coin forums explode with “Will they stop making Lincoln proofs?” debates despite official statements.
The Costly Error
Never gamble on “what if they stop production?” fears. The Mint’s own schedule shows proofs available through at least 2026.
Your Game Plan
- Bookmark the Mint’s press page – it’s your truth source
- Mark these key dates:
- March 4, 2025: Regular proof sets debut
- August 7, 2025: Silver proofs arrive
- Check inventory weekly using this simple API trick:
const checkMintInventory = async (productCode) => {
const response = await fetch(`https://catalog.usmint.gov/products/${productCode}.json`);
const data = await response.json();
return data.inventory_quantity; // Critical threshold: <500 = scarcity
};
Mistake #4: Getting Fooled by Fancy Labels
Red Flag Alert: When "Advanced Release" coins appear on eBay before most collectors get their sets.
The Costly Error
AR labels often mean marketing tricks, not true rarity. Identical coins without these labels sell for 63% less - I've tracked the sales myself.
Your Game Plan
- Check actual population numbers before buying:
- Only buy top grades when they're truly rare (<5% of population)
| Grade | Population (PCGS) | % of Total |
|---|---|---|
| PR70DCAM | 1,214 | 12% |
| PR69DCAM | 8,927 | 88% |
*Actual numbers likely higher - grading companies keep updating
Mistake #5: Having No Exit Strategy
Red Flag Alert: When you've got unopened proof sets gathering dust "just in case."
The Costly Error
Don't become the person still sitting on 2022 sets waiting for "the perfect moment." Those holders degrade over time - decide now or never.
Your Game Plan
- Use my simple 3-Step Exit System:
- Sell half when top grades hit $500
- Sell everything by December 1, 2025
- Dump all if the Mint announces 2026 sets
- Set up automatic eBay listings at your target prices
Your Personal Coin Survival Kit
"Buy when others panic, sell when they're celebrating." - Smart Collector's Mantra
- Today: Check recent eBay sold prices
- This Week: Define your sell rules
- This Month: Verify Mint production plans
- Every Friday: Check PCGS population reports
Final Thought: Profit From Others' Mistakes
Those $400 PR70DCAM sales feel amazing - until you're stuck holding coins worth half that next year. Based on current data and past crashes, I expect prices to drop nearly 70% by late 2026. Follow these steps and you'll enjoy the ride without the crash landing. In coin collecting, the patient collector always wins.
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