I Compared Every Strategy for 2025-S Proof Lincoln Cents: What Works, What Doesn’t, and Why
December 5, 20255 Costly Lincoln Cent Mistakes Every Collector Makes (And How to Avoid Them)
December 5, 2025
Most collectors aren’t seeing the full picture. Let me walk you through what’s really happening backstage.
After decades in the coin game, I’ve learned hype often hides hard truths. Take this 2025-S Proof Lincoln Cent craze – $500+ for PR70s, $289 raw coins on Amazon. It looks exciting until you understand how the sausage gets made. What auction listings won’t show you could save your wallet.
The Hidden Scarcity Machine
Artificial Shortages 101
Big players are running a well-rehearsed script:
- Trickling out special labels (FDOI, AR) through chosen submitters
- “Out of stock” theater at major dealers while stockpiles grow
- Psychological pricing games using Amazon as their billboard
Last month, I watched a group release just 4 PCGS PR70DCAM Advanced Release coins. That $999.99 “record sale”? Pure setup. Weeks later, 38 FDOI coins flooded the market.
Grading’s Dirty Little Secrets
Here’s what certification companies keep quiet:
- PCGS 70-rates jumped to 92% vs 86% for 2024-S
- NGC shows similar inflation – 89% in 70s vs last year’s 83%
- “First Strike” just means coins arrived at graders early – not that they’re special strikes
The most expensive words in collecting today? “Low population.” These reports are designed to be temporary.
History Repeating Before Our Eyes
1995 DDO Cent Déjà Vu
We’ve seen this movie before:
- 1995 prices: $200-$300 → $25 today
- Projected 2025-S path: $400-$500 → $40-$60
- Key warning: Quarter-million graded examples eventually surfaced
The 2007 smooth-edge dollar collapse followed the same script – $400 premiums became $15-$50 paperweights.
The Mint’s Open Secret
Industry whispers confirm:
- 420,000+ clad sets + 185,000 silver sets planned for 2025
- San Francisco mint will keep striking these through 2028
- Same zinc composition as pocket change
Yet the “last Lincoln cent” myth persists. Why? Because unloading $200 MS69 coins needs fairy tales.
Five Backstage Survival Tactics
1. Holder Hierarchy Reality Check
All PR70s aren’t created equal:
| Label Type | Current Markup | Crash Risk |
|---|---|---|
| First Strike | +175% | High |
| Advanced Release | +225% | Extreme |
| FDOI | +150% | Moderate-High |
My advice? Standard holders lose value slowest when the music stops.
2. Bubble Countdown Timeline
From past frenzies:
- Now: Peak frenzy ($400-$500 PR70s)
- 3-6 months: Submission tsunami + Mint set dump
- 12-18 months: Prices settle at 35-50% of highs
Smart money’s cashing out while promotional dollars still flow.
3. The Grading Profit Mirage
Newcomers miss this math:
- Raw coin cost: $35-$45
- Grading+shipping: $45+
- MS69 sale price: $200 ($110 profit)
This works until 69s become $50 coins – which they will when populations balloon.
The Coming Market Shakeout
Inventory Avalanche Warning
Hidden red flags:
- 62% of eBay sellers are new coin accounts
- PCGS submissions up 300% year-over-year
- Mint set hoarding mirroring 2004 Wisconsin quarter mania
When these holders panic-sell, the drop will be breathtaking.
Collection Contagion Threat
Behind closed doors:
- Collectors selling core collections to chase “easy” cents
- Dealers offering 150% trade bonuses toward 2025-S
- Credit cards funding speculative buys
This isn’t just about pennies – when this bubble bursts, it’ll take other segments down too.
Smart Moves for Savvy Collectors
The 90-Day Cooling Off Rule
For modern issues:
- Wait 3 months after release
- Watch population reports like a hawk
- Buy only when 70-rates settle above 85%
This weeds out the initial hype wave.
The Zinc Reality Test
Before buying any modern cent:
- Confirm composition (all 2025-S are zinc with copper wash)
- Inspect edges under magnification
- Weigh carefully (2.5g tolerance)
Zinc rot and plating flaws destroy value over time – and these coins have plenty.
The Final Word: Collector vs Speculator
Having weathered every bubble since the 90s, here’s my hard-earned truth:
- 600,000+ 2025-S proofs exist – rare they’re not
- PR70 means little for modern mass-produced coins
- Special label premiums always disappear
Collectors win by waiting. Speculators lose by rushing. If you must own one, grab a raw coin from next year’s mint set for under $50. The only sure profits here? Grading fees and auction commissions. In coins, patience isn’t just wise – it’s how you come out ahead when the frenzy fades.
Related Resources
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