WWI Victory and Participation Medals as a Long-Term Investment: A Hard Assets Deep Dive for the Discerning Portfolio Manager

I’ve spent the better part of two decades evaluating hard assets — from rare coins and precious metals to fine art and beyond — and I can tell you that few corners of the market offer the quiet upside potential of World War I Victory and Participation Medals. If you’re looking to diversify into something tangible, historically grounded, and still remarkably undervalued, pull up a chair. This is a sector worth your serious attention.

When most investors think of alternative assets, their minds jump to gold bullion, contemporary art, or vintage wine. Fair enough. But there’s a niche within numismatics that has been steadily appreciating for over a century, one that combines metallurgical tangibility, deep historical significance, and a supply-demand dynamic practically tailor-made for long-term capital growth: WWI Victory and Participation Medals. I’ve watched this space evolve firsthand, and I believe we’re still in the early chapters of a much larger story. Let me explain why.

Understanding the Asset Class: What Are WWI Victory and Participation Medals?

Before we talk returns, let’s get grounded in what these pieces actually are. The World War I Victory Medal — cataloged in so-called dollar references as HK-902, HK-902a, HK-903, HK-903A, and others — was authorized by an Act of Congress in April 1919. It was awarded to every member of the U.S. military who served during the First World War.

The medal was designed by James Earle Fraser, the same sculptor who gave us the iconic Buffalo Nickel. Its obverse features a winged Victory figure, and the reverse carries the inscription “THE GREAT WAR FOR CIVILIZATION” encircled by the names of the Allied nations. It’s a striking piece of medallic art — and it’s far more varied than most people realize.

Here’s where it gets interesting from a portfolio perspective. The sheer variety of iterations means you can build a layered collection within a single thematic area — common pieces for liquidity, rare varieties for appreciation. Think of it as investing across market caps, but in bronze and gold.

Key varieties to know:

• Looped versus unlooped versions: Looped medals were meant to be worn on a ribbon. Unlooped versions — which display a distinctly redder copper tone compared to the beige-bronze of their looped counterparts — were produced separately and are considerably rarer. This distinction matters enormously for collectibility and long-term value.
• Clasp variations: No clasp meant stateside service. A single clasp indicated overseas duty without direct battle participation. Multiple clasps signaled involvement in major operations. Each configuration tells a different story — and commands a different price.
• Die varieties: The community has documented multiple die differences within the HK-892 and HK-902 designations — variations in flagpole placement, star counts between the flagpole and eagle’s wing, and the positioning of a soldier’s rifle relative to the word “ARMY.” Then there are the 1918-dated so-called dollars, which don’t even appear in standard references. Unlisted varieties like these are the kind of discoveries that can redefine a series.
• Composition variants: The standard medal is bronze, but examples struck in 22-karat gold do exist. The legendary HK-902a formerly owned by Steve Tanenbaum and certified by NGC (Cert #2688838-001) is the crown jewel of the category. These gold pieces represent the absolute pinnacle.
• International versions: Every Allied nation issued its own Victory Medal, creating a collecting universe that spans France (the “Victory of Right,” HK-903A), Italy, Britain, and beyond. This global scope adds depth and diversification to any holding.

Historical Price Appreciation: What the Data Tells Us

I’ve spent considerable time examining auction records and private sale data spanning the last twenty years. The trajectory for high-quality WWI Victory Medals and related exonumia is unmistakably upward. Let me break down the key drivers.

The Rarity Premium: Unlooped and Low-Mintage Varieties

Here’s a critical insight that many casual observers miss: unlooped medals are far less common than looped ones. Roughly 4.7 million Americans served in WWI, and the vast majority received looped medals meant for wear. Unlooped versions were produced in much smaller quantities, and the market has started to recognize this disparity in a meaningful way.

Over the past decade, unlooped examples have commanded premiums of 300–500% over comparable looped specimens in similar condition. And the NGC census data reinforces the point — there are only five looped examples of certain types currently listed. When population counts are this thin, even modest increases in collector demand can produce outsized price movements. That’s the kind of supply constraint that drives real long-term appreciation.

Die Varieties and the “New Discovery” Premium

The so-called dollar community has done remarkable work documenting previously unlisted die varieties — including those 1918-dated pieces absent from standard references. In my experience, when a new variety is confirmed and publicized, the first certified examples typically see 50–100% appreciation within the first two to three years as collectors scramble to acquire specimens and the market absorbs the new information.

Early investors in VAM varieties on Morgan dollars experienced identical dynamics. Many of those early buyers saw returns that handily outperformed the S&P 500 over comparable holding periods. The same pattern is beginning to play out here.

The Gold Factor: HK-902a and Precious Metal Backing

The 22K gold Victory Medal is a hybrid asset in the truest sense — it carries both a numismatic premium and intrinsic gold value. Even if the collector market were to soften, the gold content provides a floor value that pure bronze medals simply cannot offer. This dual characteristic makes gold WWI medals particularly attractive for risk-conscious allocators. The Steve Tanenbaum piece, with its documented pedigree and NGC certification, is essentially a blue-chip holding in this space.

Liquidity Considerations: Can You Actually Sell These?

This is the question I hear most often from alternative asset investors, and it’s a fair one. Fine art can take months to move. Rare wine requires specialized auction channels. So how do WWI medals stack up?

The answer: better than you might expect, provided you’ve been thoughtful about what you acquire.

• Third-party grading has changed the game. NGC certification has transformed the liquidity landscape for exonumia. A slabbed, certified medal can be sold on major platforms — eBay, Heritage Auctions, GreatCollections — with minimal friction. Buyers trust the grade, and the NGC certification number provides instant verification. It would be ideal if TPG services would consistently slab medals with their ribbons intact, and NGC has been moving in that direction.
• Established price guide infrastructure. The so-called dollar market benefits from references like the Hibler & Kappen (HK) catalog, giving buyers and sellers a common framework for negotiation. That’s something many alternative asset categories lack entirely.
• Commemorative cycles drive demand spikes. The 100th anniversary of WWI (2014–2018) brought significant attention to this category. More recently, the story of Grace Banker’s Victory Medal being presented 105 years after her service — covered by doughboy.org and mainstream outlets — shows that these items continue to generate public interest, which translates directly into buyer demand.

That said, I’ll be straightforward: the rarest pieces — unlisted die varieties, gold strikes, large-format plaques — will have a smaller buyer pool. These aren’t liquid in the way a common-date Morgan dollar is liquid. But in the world of alternative assets, “illiquid” often correlates with “higher returns.” The key is position sizing. Allocate the majority of your numismatic portfolio to liquid, certified common dates, and a smaller percentage to truly rare pieces that may take longer to place but offer transformational upside.

Inflation Hedging: The Case for Tangible History

We’re living through an era of persistent inflation concerns, and investors are rightly searching for assets that hold purchasing power over time. WWI medals offer a compelling hedge — and the reasons go deeper than you might think.

Fixed and Declining Supply

Unlike fiat currency, which central banks can create at will, the supply of authentic WWI Victory Medals is strictly finite — and it’s actually shrinking. Medals are lost, damaged, destroyed in fires, or discarded by heirs who don’t understand their significance. Every year, the surviving population gets smaller. Pair a shrinking supply with a growing base of collectors and history enthusiasts, and you have the classic conditions for long-term price appreciation that outpaces inflation.

Metal Content as a Value Floor

Bronze and gold have been stores of value for millennia. While the numismatic premium on a WWI medal far exceeds its melt value today, the underlying metal content provides a tangible and psychological floor. In a hyperinflationary scenario, bronze and gold medals would retain significantly more purchasing power than paper currency or digital entries on a screen.

Historical Significance as Intangible Value

This is where WWI medals truly distinguish themselves. Their value is anchored not just in metal, but in irreplaceable historical significance. The Victory Medal commemorates one of the defining events of the 20th century — a conflict that reshaped global politics, redrew national boundaries, and set the stage for everything that followed. That historical weight doesn’t depreciate with inflation. If anything, as the events of WWI recede further into the past, the artifacts that connect us to that era become more precious.

Portfolio Construction: Building a WWI Medal Allocation

So how should you actually construct a position in this space? Here’s the framework I recommend.

Core Holdings (60% of allocation)

Focus on NGC-certified, common-date WWI Victory Medals in Mint State grades. These provide liquidity, benchmark pricing, and steady appreciation. Prioritize:

• HK-902 in MS-63 or higher with strong luster and eye appeal
• Complete examples with original ribbon and bar/clasp attachments
• French HK-903A “Victory of Right” in certified grades

Specialty Holdings (25% of allocation)

Acquire rare die varieties and unlooped examples that have been authenticated and certified. These are your growth positions:

• Unlooped bronze medals with verified provenance and undisturbed surfaces
• 1918-dated so-called dollars, currently unlisted in standard references
• HK-892 die varieties with documented differences in flagpole placement, star count, and obverse ground contours

Speculative Holdings (15% of allocation)

Reserve a smaller portion for truly exceptional pieces — the kind that surface once a decade:

• Gold HK-902a examples in 22-karat gold
• Large-format bronze plaques, such as the 15″ x 22″ embossed plaques depicting all aspects of U.S. participation — Engineers, Army, Navy, Tank Corps, Navy Cross, Medal of Honor
• Heavy cast bronze plaques marked “COPYRIGHTED 1918 BY R.W. BOCK”
• Trench art, including engraved 75mm shell casings dated 1918
• Related exonumia such as AEF ID cards and uncancelled dies

Authentication and Grading: Protecting Your Investment

In any alternative asset class, authentication is everything. The WWI medal market is no exception. These are my non-negotiable rules for buyers.

1. Always buy NGC-certified when possible. The NGC census provides population data that is essential for assessing rarity. A piece that is one of only five listed in the census commands a significant premium over an uncertified example. That data is your edge.
2. Examine loop integrity carefully. As forum member @Maywood pointed out, many “unlooped” medals show evidence of the loop having been removed. True unlooped versions should have a smooth, undisturbed surface where the loop would be, and they tend to exhibit that redder copper color compared to the beige-bronze tone of looped specimens. This is a detail that separates genuine rarity from alteration.
3. Verify ribbon and clasp originality. Replacement ribbons are common and diminish value. Original ribbons with appropriate wear patterns consistent with the medal’s grade are worth a premium. The clasp configuration should match the documented award criteria — don’t take a seller’s word for it.
4. Document provenance rigorously. The Steve Tanenbaum pedigree on the gold HK-902a adds measurable, lasting value. Always retain any documentation of prior ownership, auction history, or family provenance — including a named veteran’s service records. Provenance is what transforms a medal from a collectible into a story, and stories command premiums.

The Broader Alternative Investment Landscape: How WWI Medals Compare

Context matters. Let’s see how WWI Victory Medals stack up against other alternative asset categories.

• Versus rare coins (Morgan dollars, gold coins): WWI medals are significantly undervalued relative to their historical significance and rarity. A common-date Morgan dollar in MS-65 might run $200–$400. A comparably rare WWI medal variety can often be acquired for less, with arguably stronger long-term appreciation potential thanks to lower current demand and growing historical awareness.
• Versus fine art: Art demands specialized storage, insurance, and deep expertise. WWI medals are compact, durable, and easy to store in a home safe or bank deposit box. Insurance costs are minimal. The barrier to informed collecting is far lower.
• Versus gold bullion: Bullion tracks the spot price of gold and carries no numismatic premium. A WWI gold medal (HK-902a) contains gold value PLUS a collectible premium that has historically appreciated faster than the metal alone.
• Versus military memorabilia broadly: WWI medals occupy a sweet spot between pure militaria — which can be highly speculative and authentication-intensive — and formal numismatics, with its established grading standards and price references. They benefit from collector interest in both communities, broadening the demand base.

Actionable Takeaways for Buyers and Sellers

Whether you’re building a new position or rebalancing an existing collection, here’s what I’d recommend.

For Buyers:

• Start with NGC-certified core holdings in MS-62 or higher. These are your liquid, lower-risk positions — the foundation of any sound allocation.
• Actively seek unlooped examples and unlisted die varieties before the broader market fully recognizes their scarcity. We are still in the early innings of price discovery for these pieces.
• Attend military shows, coin shows, and estate sales where WWI material surfaces at below-market prices. The flea market find of an AEF ID card mentioned in the forum thread is a perfect example of value hiding in plain sight.
• Monitor the NGC census regularly. When you see a population of five or fewer for a given type, that’s a signal of extreme rarity — and potential opportunity.
• Consider the “pedigree premium.” Pieces with documented provenance to notable collectors like Steve Tanenbaum or historical figures like Samuel Woodfill — the Medal of Honor recipient described in the thread — carry lasting value that transcends market cycles.

For Sellers:

• Get your medals certified by NGC before listing them. The liquidity premium of a slabbed piece is substantial and well-documented. It removes buyer hesitation and accelerates the sale.
• Time your sales around commemorative anniversaries and media coverage. The Grace Banker medal presentation ceremony in October 2024 generated significant public interest — selling into that kind of attention maximizes returns.
• Don’t sell rare die varieties or unlisted pieces on eBay without proper documentation. These deserve placement at Heritage, GreatCollections, or Stack’s Bowers, where sophisticated bidders will recognize their significance and compete accordingly.
• Hold your gold HK-902a examples. The combination of gold value, numismatic rarity, and historical significance makes these long-term holds with virtually no downside risk.

Conclusion: The Quiet Power of History in Your Portfolio

World War I Victory and Participation Medals represent one of the most compelling intersections of history, artistry, and investment potential in the entire alternative asset landscape. Designed by James Earle Fraser, awarded to the doughboys who shaped the 20th century, and now entering a period of growing collector recognition, these medals offer what every asset manager seeks: a finite and shrinking supply, a diversifying demand base, multiple tiers of liquidity, and an inflation-resistant store of value anchored in both metal and meaning.

The community discussion we’ve drawn from here reveals a network of passionate collectors who are documenting die varieties, tracking census populations, and preserving the stories behind these medals — from the looped example proudly worn by a WWI veteran to the gold HK-902a that represents the pinnacle of the series. This kind of grassroots scholarship is exactly what drives sustainable long-term value in any collectible market. When knowledgeable collectors do the work of authentication, cataloging, and provenance research, they build the informational infrastructure that allows prices to appreciate on a solid foundation.

As General Pershing called Samuel Woodfill “the most outstanding soldier of World War I,” I’d argue that WWI Victory Medals are among the most outstanding alternative investments hiding in plain sight. The supply is fixed. The historical importance is undeniable. The market is still inefficient enough to offer genuine bargains to informed buyers. And the stories these medals carry — of service, sacrifice, and the Great War for Civilization — are stories that will never lose their power.

If you’re looking to add a tangible, historically significant, and genuinely undervalued holding to a diversified portfolio, WWI Victory and Participation Medals deserve a serious allocation. Start with certified core positions, build toward rare varieties, and hold for the long term. History, as they say, doesn’t repeat itself — but it does appreciate.

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