Writing a Technical Book on Coin Grading and Market Hype: My Journey from Idea to Publication with O’Reilly
November 16, 2025How I Cracked the Code to Collecting Valuable Lincoln Cents (Before They’re Gone Forever)
November 16, 2025
Why Hype-Driven Tech Valuations Keep M&A Teams Up at Night
Acquiring a tech company without proper technical due diligence? That’s like buying a “rare” coin without checking its actual mintage numbers. Let me explain why inflated valuations should make any acquisition team nervous – and what we can learn from the coin market’s hype cycles.
When Shiny Objects Distract From Real Value
Take those 2025 Lincoln proofs graded PR70DCAM. Why are people paying $200+ when PCGS values them at $75 with 1,800 identical copies in existence? As an M&A due diligence specialist with 12 years in tech, I see this same dangerous pattern play out daily:
Three Alarm Bells I Never Ignore
- Reality distortion: Claims of “unique technology” that’s actually commodity SaaS with a fresh coat of paint
- Manufactured demand: Growth numbers propped up by unsustainable discounts or locked-in contracts
- Lagging indicators: Valuation models using last year’s multiples for this year’s market conditions
How We Grade Tech Like Rare Coins
Just as numismatists examine coins under magnification, our technical audits measure what actually matters beneath the surface. That Python snippet you see below? It’s from our actual evaluation framework:
def evaluate_code_quality(repo):
metrics = {
'debt_ratio': calculate_tech_debt(repo),
'test_coverage': get_test_coverage(repo),
'hotspots': identify_complexity_hotspots(repo),
'dependencies': check_vulnerable_dependencies(repo)
}
return apply_merger_adjustments(metrics)
This helps us spot the difference between true quality and surface glitter. A recent “PR70-grade” codebase we assessed had:
- Meaningful test coverage beyond vanity metrics
- Tech debt that wouldn’t sink the acquisition
- No hidden security landmines in third-party code
Stress-Testing Scalability Claims
Remember how coin markets crash when everyone tries to sell at once? We apply that same scrutiny to tech scalability:
- The stampede test: Can systems handle 10x real user traffic tomorrow?
- The diet test: Do costs shrink when usage drops, or is infrastructure bloated?
- The bottleneck hunt: Where will concurrent users create logjams?
Seeing Through the Haze of Hype
That $200 Lincoln proof purchase mirrors how acquirers overpay for:
- Vaporware features: Roadmap items masquerading as shipped capabilities
- Bot-driven metrics: Artificial user engagement that evaporates post-acquisition
- Scalability theater: Demos that work beautifully… until real customers show up
A Due Diligence Framework That Works
After evaluating hundreds of tech targets, here’s how we weight what actually matters:
The Tech M&A Scorecard
| Focus Area | What Coin Collectors Check | Tech Weighting |
|---|---|---|
| Code Health | Surface imperfections | 35% |
| Growth Capacity | Mintage numbers | 25% |
| Security Posture | Authentication marks | 20% |
| Knowledge Assets | Provenance papers | 15% |
| Team Depth | Grading authority reputation | 5% |
The Naked Truth About Tech Acquisitions
Smart buyers approach M&A like seasoned collectors:
- Bring your own magnifying glass to inspect claims
- Assume every growth chart needs reality verification
- Judge scalability by worst-case scenarios, not best-case demos
At the end of the day, overpaying for tech isn’t about bad judgment – it’s about not asking the right technical questions before the deal closes. And trust me, I’ve seen how that $200 “rare” coin moment feels when the hype evaporates.
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