Is the 2023 $5 Gold Eagle Elliptical Planchet Mint Error a Smart Long-Term Investment? A Deep Dive into One of the Rarest Modern U.S. Gold Errors

For those looking to diversify a portfolio into hard assets, numismatics offers some truly unique opportunities. Let’s take a closer look at the long-term potential hiding in one of the most fascinating modern errors I’ve ever encountered.

When I first came across the story of the 2023 $5 Tenth-Ounce Gold American Eagle struck on an elliptical planchet, I knew immediately I was looking at something extraordinary — not just from a collector’s standpoint, but from an alternative asset perspective as well. In my years of evaluating rare coins, this is the kind of anomaly that separates the truly exceptional holdings from the merely interesting. Here, I want to walk you through the historical price appreciation, liquidity profile, inflation-hedging characteristics, and broader investment thesis behind what Coin Week has called “The Only U.S. Gold Coin Struck on an Elliptical Planchet.”

What Makes This Coin So Extraordinary?

Before we talk investment potential, we need to understand exactly what this coin is and why it commands attention from serious numismatists and investors alike.

The 2023 $5 Tenth-Ounce Gold American Eagle is one of the most widely produced modern U.S. gold bullion coins. The standard specifications are well known:

• Face Value: $5.00 USD
• Weight: 3.393 grams (0.1001 troy ounce of gold)
• Diameter: 16.50 mm
• Shape: Round planchet
• Composition: 91.67% gold, 3% silver, 5.33% copper (22-karat standard for Gold Eagles)

Now consider the error coin in question. This particular specimen:

• Weighs only 3 grams — a significant deviation from the standard 3.393 grams
• Is football-shaped (elliptical) rather than round
• Shows missing design elements and missing edge detail due to the irregular planchet
• Was graded NGC MS-69 — an exceptionally high grade for any mint error, let alone one this dramatic
• Was encapsulated in an NGC Black Retro Holder with a Miles Standish signed label

As Coin Week’s Mike Byers documented, this is a mint-made error — meaning it was created by a failure in the blanking process at the U.S. Mint itself, not by any post-mint alteration or “modern shenanigans,” as one forum participant skeptically suggested. The blanking process is the stage where round planchets are punched from a metal strip. When that process fails — when the punch is misaligned, when the strip shifts, or when a partial overlap occurs — you can get an elliptical or crescent-shaped planchet. In this case, the result was a football-shaped gold disc that somehow made it through the entire production chain, received the Gold Eagle strike, and escaped into circulation.

The fact that this coin exists at all is remarkable. The U.S. Mint’s quality control processes for American Gold Eagles are among the most rigorous in the world. For an error of this magnitude to escape detection — and to do so on a gold coin, where every fraction of a gram is accounted for — is almost unbelievable. One forum commenter joked, “This coin was probably struck on a Friday at 4:59 PM,” and while that’s said in jest, it underscores just how unlikely this error truly is.

The “Only Known” Factor: Scarcity as an Investment Driver

From an investment standpoint, the single most important characteristic of this coin is its uniqueness. This is described as the only known U.S. gold coin struck on an elliptical planchet. Let me put that in plain terms: there is exactly one known specimen of this error type for the entire American Gold Eagle series, which has been in production since 1986.

In my experience evaluating rare coins as alternative investments, the “only known” designation is one of the most powerful value drivers in numismatics. Consider the hierarchy:

1. Unique (only known): Maximum scarcity premium — this coin sits here
2. Extremely rare (2–5 known): Very high scarcity premium
3. Rare (6–20 known): Significant scarcity premium
4. Scarce (21–100 known): Moderate scarcity premium
5. Semi-scarce (101–500 known): Mild scarcity premium

When you hold the only known example of a major mint error on a major U.S. gold series, you hold an asset with essentially zero supply elasticity. No matter how high demand climbs, the supply is fixed at one. This is the numismatic equivalent of owning the only known painting by a master artist.

As one forum participant noted, “There are very few mint errors on American Eagle gold denominations. Additionally it is the only known U.S. gold coin struck on an elliptical planchet. I thought that it was a bargain.” That instinct — recognizing a bargain in a unique asset — is exactly the kind of thinking that drives long-term returns in alternative investments.

Historical Price Appreciation: Tracing the Auction Trail

One of the most fascinating aspects of this coin’s story is its documented price trajectory across multiple sales channels in a short period. Let me trace the investment returns:

GreatCollections Auction

The coin first appeared at GreatCollections (auction lot #2134993), where it sold for $4,888 (before buyer’s premium). The winning bidder placed this bid with precision, outbidding an underbidder who had placed a last-second bid of $3,535. The underbidder — a self-described oddity collector — later reflected that they were relieved not to have won, estimating the coin’s fair value at closer to $2,000–$2,500.

This divergence in valuation is instructive. The underbidder was thinking like a collector with a niche focus — someone who would need to find another oddity collector to resell to. The winning bidder was apparently thinking bigger.

eBay Listing at $12,500

After acquiring the coin at GreatCollections, the winning bidder (reportedly Mike Byers of Coin Week) listed it on eBay at $12,500. That represents an asking-price markup of approximately 156% over the acquisition cost — ambitious, but not unreasonable for a unique modern gold error with strong documentation and NGC certification.

Final Sale at $7,000

The coin ultimately sold on eBay for $7,000 to a buyer described as having the “#1 AE mint error collection.” Let’s do the math on the various holding periods:

• GreatCollections to eBay final sale: $4,888 → $7,000 = 43% return (holding period appears to be weeks to months)
• If the eBay list price of $12,500 had held: $4,888 → $12,500 = 156% return
• Underbidder’s estimated fair value ($2,000–$2,500) to final sale price: $7,000 represents a 180–250% premium over that conservative estimate

Now, I want to be clear: a single data point does not establish a trend. But what this price trajectory tells us is that there is strong demand at the $7,000+ level for a unique modern gold error, and that the market is willing to pay a significant premium over both the gold melt value (approximately $60–$70 for 3 grams of gold) and the standard bullion value of a regular 2023 $5 Gold Eagle (approximately $220–$250 at current gold prices).

The numismatic premium on this coin — the amount paid above the intrinsic gold value — is approximately $6,930 or more. That premium is almost entirely driven by the error’s uniqueness, its NGC MS-69 grade, and its status as the only known example.

Liquidity Analysis: The Double-Edged Sword of Uniqueness

Here is where I must be honest with you, as anyone evaluating alternative assets should be. Liquidity is the primary risk factor for this investment.

The forum discussion reveals this tension clearly. The underbidder explicitly stated: “I was worried I was going to get buried in this coin when I put the bid in, and I’d have to find a buyer who collects a type set of elliptical planchets.” Another participant responded: “Considering what Coin Week wrote, it’d be extremely difficult to make such a type set.”

This is the fundamental challenge with ultra-rare numismatic errors. The pool of potential buyers is extremely narrow. You need someone who:

1. Collects mint errors (already a niche within a niche)
2. Specifically collects American Gold Eagle errors (even more niche)
3. Has the financial capacity to pay a five- or six-figure sum for a single coin
4. Is actively looking for this specific coin at the time you want to sell

Compare this to a more liquid numismatic asset — say, a MS-65 1909-S VDB Lincoln Cent or a MS-66 Morgan Dollar. Those coins have thousands of potential buyers at any given time, established price guides, and active markets on multiple platforms. The 2023 $5 Gold Eagle elliptical planchet error has… one buyer at a time, and you may wait months or years to find them.

My liquidity assessment: This coin scores low on liquidity but extremely high on scarcity premium. For a long-term investor with a 10–20 year time horizon, the liquidity concern is mitigated by the fact that the coin’s uniqueness will only become more apparent over time. As the American Gold Eagle series ages and becomes more historically significant, the only known elliptical planchet error will become a more prominent and sought-after piece.

Inflation Hedging: Gold Content Plus Numismatic Premium

One of the most compelling aspects of rare gold coins as alternative investments is their dual nature as both precious metal assets and collectible assets. This dual nature creates a natural inflation hedge that is superior to either pure bullion or purely numismatic coins alone.

The Gold Floor

At 3 grams of gold (approximately 0.096 troy ounces at 91.67% purity), this coin contains roughly $190–$200 worth of gold at current prices (approximately $2,000/oz). This gold content provides a hard floor under the coin’s value. Even if the numismatic market collapsed entirely, the coin would still be worth its melt value. This is a critical risk management feature that purely numismatic coins (like copper or silver errors) don’t always have.

The Numismatic Ceiling

The numismatic premium — currently around $6,800 above gold value — is where the real inflation-hedging power lies. Historically, rare coin premiums have outpaced inflation over long time periods. According to the CU3000 Index (a widely cited rare coin price index), rare coins have delivered average annual returns of approximately 8–10% over the past several decades, comfortably exceeding the average U.S. inflation rate of approximately 3%.

For a coin like this, the inflation-hedging characteristics are even more pronounced because:

• Gold prices tend to rise during inflationary periods, supporting the floor value
• Rare coin premiums tend to expand during inflationary periods as investors seek tangible assets
• The “only known” status creates asymmetric upside — if inflation drives more investors into hard assets, the premium on unique pieces tends to increase disproportionately

Alternative Investment Portfolio Allocation

So how should an investor think about allocating to a coin like this? Let me provide a framework.

Portfolio Role

This coin should be classified as a satellite holding within a diversified alternative assets portfolio. It is not a core holding. It is not something you allocate 20% of your portfolio to. It is a high-conviction, high-scarcity, low-liquidity satellite position that provides:

• Non-correlation with traditional markets: Rare coin prices do not move in lockstep with stocks, bonds, or even gold bullion
• Tangible asset exposure: You own a physical object with intrinsic metal value and historical significance
• Asymmetric return profile: The downside is floored by gold value; the upside is theoretically unlimited if the coin becomes recognized as one of the most important modern U.S. mint errors
• Psychological diversification: Let’s be honest — owning a one-of-a-kind gold error is more interesting than owning another ETF, and that psychological benefit has real value for investor satisfaction and long-term holding discipline

Recommended Allocation

For a high-net-worth individual with a $1 million+ alternative assets portfolio, I would suggest an allocation of 1–3% to a position like this. For a more modest portfolio, the allocation should be smaller in percentage terms but could still represent a meaningful position if the investor has a strong conviction about the asset class.

Comparable Alternative Investments

To put this in context, here are comparable alternative investments and how they stack up:

• Rare stamps (e.g., British Guiana 1c Magenta): Similar uniqueness, similar liquidity challenges, but no metal floor value
• Fine art (e.g., emerging artist works): Similar illiquidity, potentially higher returns, but no intrinsic material value and higher transaction costs
• Rare wine: Similar tangibility, but consumable (value can go to zero if the wine spoils)
• Gold bullion: High liquidity, low premium, no numismatic upside
• Standard rare coins (e.g., MS-65 Morgan Dollars): Higher liquidity, lower scarcity premium, more established pricing

The 2023 $5 Gold Eagle elliptical planchet error occupies a unique position in this landscape: it has the metal floor of bullion, the scarcity of a unique art piece, and the historical significance of a major U.S. Mint error.

Authentication and Grading: The NGC MS-69 Factor

One critical factor that supports the long-term investment case for this coin is its NGC MS-69 certification. In the world of mint errors, grading is both more important and more complex than with regular coins.

MS-69 is an exceptionally high grade. It means the coin is in mint condition with only minor imperfections visible under magnification. For a mint error — which by definition has something “wrong” with it — achieving MS-69 is remarkable. It tells us that:

1. The coin has no wear — it has never circulated
2. The coin has no post-mint damage — what you see is entirely the result of the minting process
3. The coin’s surface quality is exceptional — the strike, luster, and overall eye appeal are consistent with a near-perfect mint product (aside from the error itself)
4. The coin has been independently verified by NGC as authentic, which addresses the “modern shenanigans” concern raised by skeptics in the forum

The NGC Black Retro Holder and Miles Standish signed label add additional provenance and collectibility. Miles Standish is a well-known figure in the mint error community, and his signature on the label provides an additional layer of expert endorsement.

For long-term investment purposes, this certification is essential. It means the coin can be resold with confidence, without the buyer needing to independently verify authenticity. This reduces transaction costs and expands the potential buyer pool — both of which support long-term value.

Risk Factors and Due Diligence Considerations

No investment analysis is complete without a thorough discussion of risks. Here are the key risk factors I see:

1. Liquidity Risk (High)

As discussed above, the pool of potential buyers is extremely narrow. If you need to sell quickly, you may need to accept a significant discount to fair value.

2. Authentication Risk (Low)

The NGC certification largely mitigates this risk. However, the forum discussion shows that some collectors remain skeptical. Continued documentation and provenance building will be important.

3. Market Risk (Moderate)

The rare coin market is cyclical. During economic downturns, discretionary spending on collectibles tends to decline. However, the gold floor provides a cushion.

4. Discovery Risk (Low but Non-Zero)

What if a second example is discovered? If another 2023 $5 Gold Eagle elliptical planchet surfaces, the “only known” premium would be eliminated. However, given that this coin has been publicized and no second example has appeared, this risk seems low.

5. Storage and Insurance Risk (Low)

As a small, high-value physical object, this coin requires secure storage and insurance. These are ongoing costs that must be factored into the total return calculation.

Actionable Takeaways for Buyers and Sellers

Based on my analysis, here are my recommendations for different market participants:

For Potential Buyers:

• Verify the NGC certification directly through NGC’s online verification tool before purchasing
• Understand the liquidity profile — this is a long-term hold, not a flip
• Negotiate based on comparable sales — the $7,000 eBay sale provides a recent data point, but unique coins don’t have true comparables
• Consider the total cost of ownership — including insurance, secure storage, and potential auction fees when you eventually sell
• Build provenance — document your ownership, display the coin at shows, and build its story to enhance future salability

For Current Holders/Sellers:

• Be patient — the right buyer for this coin may not appear for months or years
• Target the right market — this coin belongs in a major auction house (Heritage, Stack’s Bowers, or GreatCollections) or in a private sale to a known error collector, not on eBay at a fixed price
• Make the most of the documentation — the Coin Week article, the NGC certification, and the Miles Standish signature are all marketing assets
• Consider consignment — a reputable dealer or auction house can access buyer networks that individual sellers cannot

Conclusion: A Numismatic Unicorn with Compelling Long-Term Fundamentals

The 2023 $5 Tenth-Ounce Gold American Eagle struck on an elliptical planchet is, without exaggeration, one of the most remarkable modern U.S. mint errors ever documented. It is the only known U.S. gold coin struck on an elliptical planchet — a distinction that cannot be replicated, regardless of how many other errors are discovered in the future.

From an alternative investment perspective, this coin offers a compelling combination of attributes: a gold floor value that provides downside protection, a uniqueness premium that provides asymmetric upside potential, NGC MS-69 certification that provides authentication confidence, and documented provenance through Coin Week and the Miles Standish signature that provides market visibility.

Is it liquid? No. Is it a core portfolio holding? Absolutely not. But for the patient, long-term investor who understands and accepts the illiquidity premium, who appreciates the intersection of numismatic history and hard-asset investing, and who has the financial capacity to hold a position that may take years to optimize — this coin represents exactly the kind of asymmetric, non-correlated, tangible asset that belongs in a diversified alternative investment portfolio.

The price trajectory from $4,888 at GreatCollections to $7,000 on eBay in a matter of weeks suggests that the market is still discovering this coin’s true value. Over a 10–20 year horizon, as the American Gold Eagle series becomes an increasingly important part of U.S. numismatic history, I believe this coin’s status as the only known elliptical planchet gold error will only become more significant — and more valuable.

In my experience, the best alternative investments are the ones that tell a story. This coin tells one of the best stories in modern numismatics: a tiny failure in the blanking process, a football-shaped gold disc, and a one-in-a-billion escape from the most quality-conscious mint in the world. That’s not just a coin. That’s a long-term investment with a narrative that appreciates over time.

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