The Crack-Out Game: Should You Resubmit Your 1867 Shield Nickel with Rays for a PCGS Crossover?

Sometimes the plastic holder is holding the coin back. Let’s talk about the risks and rewards of trying to upgrade this piece across grading services.

I’ve spent years staring through acrylic slabs, evaluating surfaces, and making calculated calls on whether a coin deserves a second chance at a higher grade. So when a forum thread recently surfaced featuring a stunning 1867 Shield Nickel with Rays—complete with dramatic machine doubling on the date—it stopped me mid-scroll. Not just for its visual intrigue, but for the crossover grading dilemma it perfectly illustrates. This coin, last seen in a CACG MS63 holder, is a textbook case study for understanding when to crack, when to hold, and how to spot undergraded coins hiding in plain sight.

Understanding the 1867 Shield Nickel with Rays: A Brief Historical Context

Before we get into crack-out strategy, let’s ground ourselves in the history. The Shield Nickel debuted in 1866, replacing the silver half dime. Struck in copper-nickel alloy, it gave the coin that distinctive pale, almost ghostly appearance collectors either love or find challenging. The “with Rays” variety—those decorative lines between the stars on the reverse—only appeared in 1866 and 1867 before the Mint scrapped them due to striking difficulties.

The 1867 with Rays is a key date. Mintage? Just 2,019,000 pieces. In today’s market, even problem-free examples in lower Mint State grades command strong premiums. This series is notorious for soft details, weak strikes, and a frustrating susceptibility to contact marks. All of that makes grading deeply nuanced—and, frankly, subjective.

The Coin in Question: Machine Doubling and Die Anomalies

The forum thread that inspired this piece centered on an 1867 Shield Nickel with Rays showing what experts identified as dramatic machine doubling—also called strike doubling—on the date. One experienced collector called it “one of the most magnificent examples of strike doubling I have ever seen.” Here’s what happened: the obverse die retracted after the initial strike, and the raised date digits contacted the die again, embossing a partial second date onto the tops of the originals.

What makes this specimen so compelling is how visible the doubling is. You can clearly see part of a second “8” appearing on the right side of the “1” in the date, with the fields between the numbers sitting on top of the digits—shifted left and slightly up. There are also die cracks running through the date area and anomalies along the lower right leaves of the shield.

From a crack-out perspective, these characteristics matter enormously. They tell me this coin has character. And character—when properly documented and understood—can be the difference between a standard MS63 and a premium-priced MS64 or higher.

Why CACG MS63 Might Be Undergraded: Reading Between the Lines

Let’s address the elephant in the room. This coin was certified CACG MS63. CACG (Certified Acceptance Corporation) is a respected grading service, but it’s relatively new compared to the “Big Two”—PCGS and NGC. In my experience, CACG tends to grade conservatively, particularly on series like the Shield Nickel where strike quality and surface preservation are inherently challenging.

Here’s what I look for when evaluating a potential crossover candidate from CACG to PCGS:

• Surface quality: Are there hidden luster breaks, hairlines, or friction that might have been penalized more heavily at CACG than PCGS would?
• Strike characteristics: Does the coin exhibit above-average strike detail for the grade? The dramatic machine doubling on this piece suggests a well-struck die state.
• Eye appeal: This is subjective but critical. Coins with interesting die anomalies, die cracks, and visible doubling often carry a premium at PCGS, especially if they’re well-documented in the variety databases.
• Market precedent: What have similar pieces sold for at PCGS versus CACG? The price differential can justify the crack-out risk.

In this specific case, the combination of dramatic machine doubling, die cracks, and the overall visual impact of the coin suggests it may have been conservatively graded. The forum consensus was overwhelmingly positive, with multiple experienced collectors expressing genuine admiration for the coin’s unique characteristics.

The NGC to PCGS Crossover: A Strategic Framework

While our example coin was in a CACG holder, the principles of crossover grading apply equally—and perhaps even more critically—when moving from NGC to PCGS. In my years of crack-out work, I’ve developed a systematic approach to evaluating whether a coin has a realistic chance of crossing at the same grade or higher.

Step 1: Understand the Grading Philosophy Differences

PCGS and NGC, while both highly respected, have subtle but meaningful differences in their grading approaches. PCGS tends to be slightly more generous with eye appeal and strike quality on certain series, while NGC can be more conservative on surface marks. For Shield Nickels specifically, I’ve found that PCGS often rewards strong luster and original surfaces more generously than NGC.

Step 2: Analyze the Coin’s Strengths and Weaknesses

Before cracking anything out, I perform a thorough examination under multiple lighting conditions. For a Shield Nickel, I’m specifically looking for:

1. Luster quality: Original, undisturbed luster is the single most important factor in Mint State grading. Cartwheel luster that rolls across the surface under angled light is a strong positive indicator.
2. Contact marks: The size, location, and number of marks determine the grade ceiling. Marks in the open fields are less penalizing than marks on the focal points—date, shield, stars.
3. Strike completeness: Shield Nickels are notoriously weakly struck. A fully struck example with sharp ray details and clear shield lines can command a significant premium.
4. Originality: Has the coin been cleaned, dipped, or otherwise altered? Original toning and surfaces are essential for top grades.

Step 3: Research Comparable Sales

I always check recent auction results for the same date, variety, and grade. If PCGS MS64 examples are selling for 30–50% more than NGC MS64 examples, the crossover math starts to make sense. For the 1867 Shield Nickel with Rays, the premium for PCGS-graded examples can be substantial, particularly in MS64 and above.

Step 4: Calculate the Risk-Reward Ratio

Here’s where the crack-out game gets real. Every time you crack a coin out of its holder, you’re accepting risk:

• Downgrade risk: The coin could come back at a lower grade, reducing its market value.
• Same grade risk: The coin crosses at the same grade, meaning you’ve spent money on grading fees for no gain.
• Damage risk: The physical act of cracking out can, in rare cases, cause damage to the coin’s edge or surfaces.
• Time cost: Grading turnaround times can be weeks or months, during which the coin is out of the market.

My rule of thumb: I only crack out when I believe there’s at least a 60% chance of an upgrade or same-grade crossover, and the potential financial reward justifies the risk.

Identifying Undergraded Coins: The Professional’s Eye

After years of cracking out coins, I’ve developed an instinct for spotting undergraded pieces. Here are the telltale signs I look for:

Conservative Grading Services

Some services, particularly newer ones or those with stricter standards, tend to grade conservatively. CACG, while excellent, is still establishing its market reputation, and some collectors report that their initial grading can be tighter than PCGS or NGC. This creates opportunity for the savvy crack-out artist.

Series-Specific Nuances

Every series has its quirks. For Shield Nickels, the key grading factors are:

• Shield detail: Full horizontal and vertical lines in the shield indicate a strong strike.
• Ray definition: Clear, separate rays on the reverse are essential for higher grades.
• Star centrils: Complete star centers are rare and desirable.
• Date and lettering: Sharp, complete date digits with no weakness.

If a coin exhibits these characteristics but is graded MS63, it may be a prime crack-out candidate.

Variety Premiums

Coins with recognized varieties—repunched dates, doubled dies, and other die anomalies—often carry premiums that aren’t fully reflected in the base grade. The 1867 Shield Nickel with Rays in our forum example exhibited dramatic machine doubling that, while not a recognized variety in the traditional sense, added significant visual interest and collector appeal.

At PCGS, well-documented die varieties can sometimes receive a “variety designation” on the holder label, which can add 10–25% to the coin’s numismatic value. This is a crucial consideration in the crack-out decision.

The Crack-Out Process: A Step-by-Step Guide

For those new to the crack-out game, here’s my professional process:

1. Photograph everything: Before cracking, take high-resolution photos of the coin in its holder from multiple angles. This documents the coin’s condition and provides evidence in case of any disputes.
2. Choose your target service: Based on your research, decide whether PCGS, NGC, or another service offers the best chance of a favorable outcome.
3. Select the right submission tier: PCGS offers different service levels with varying turnaround times and fees. For a coin like the 1867 Shield Nickel with Rays, I’d recommend the standard or express tier depending on market timing.
4. Complete the submission form accurately: Include any variety information, provenance, and special instructions. If you believe the coin has a specific die variety, note it on the form.
5. Package securely: Use proper shipping materials and insurance. These coins are valuable and irreplaceable.
6. Wait patiently: Grading turnaround times vary, but use this time to continue researching comparable sales and market trends.

When NOT to Crack Out: The Art of Knowing When to Hold

Not every coin should be cracked out. Here are the situations where I advise my clients to leave the coin in its current holder:

• The coin is already at the top of its grade range: If the coin is clearly a premium example for its grade, cracking out risks a downgrade with little upside.
• Market conditions are unfavorable: If prices for the date and grade are declining, it’s better to wait for a stronger market.
• The coin has been in the same holder for years: Long-term holders develop a track record and provenance that can be valuable in itself.
• The cost of grading exceeds the potential gain: Always do the math. If grading fees plus shipping and insurance eat up any potential profit, it’s not worth it.
• You’re emotionally attached: The crack-out game requires cold, rational analysis. If you can’t objectively evaluate the coin, don’t crack it out.

Market Realities: The Price of Plastic

Let’s talk about the uncomfortable truth: in numismatics, the plastic holder matters almost as much as the coin inside. PCGS-graded coins consistently command premiums over identical coins in NGC, CACG, or ANACS holders. This isn’t necessarily because PCGS grades more leniently—it’s because the market has the most confidence in PCGS’s consistency and the deepest pool of buyers for PCGS-graded material.

For the 1867 Shield Nickel with Rays, the PCGS premium can be significant:

• MS63: PCGS examples typically sell for 15–25% more than NGC or CACG equivalents.
• MS64: The premium widens to 20–35%, as PCGS MS64 examples are scarcer and more sought-after.
• MS65 and above: At the highest grades, the PCGS premium can exceed 50%, as collectors and investors overwhelmingly prefer PCGS for premium material.

This premium structure is what makes the crack-out game worthwhile. If you can successfully cross a CACG MS63 to a PCGS MS64, you’ve potentially increased the coin’s value by 40–60%—more than enough to cover grading fees and justify the risk.

The Forum Coin: A Post-Mortem Analysis

Returning to our forum example—the 1867 Shield Nickel with Rays in CACG MS63 that sold at Great Collections—what can we learn from this coin’s journey?

First, the coin’s dramatic machine doubling and die cracks made it a standout piece with significant collector appeal. The forum discussion generated substantial interest, with multiple experienced collectors praising the coin’s unique characteristics. This kind of community engagement often translates to stronger auction results.

Second, the coin’s CACG grading, while accurate, may have left money on the table. A PCGS MS64 designation with a variety notation could have commanded a significantly higher price. The seller reported being “happy with the hammer price,” but the crack-out artist in me wonders what might have been.

Third, the coin’s sale at auction—rather than through a private treaty or dealer transaction—meant that the market set the price. Auction results are public, transparent, and establish benchmarks for future sales. This is valuable data for anyone considering a similar crack-out.

Advanced Strategies: The Crack-Out Artist’s Playbook

For those ready to take their crack-out game to the next level, here are some advanced strategies I employ:

Bulk Submissions

PCGS and NGC offer bulk submission discounts. If you have multiple coins to submit, grouping them together can reduce per-coin grading costs by 20–30%. This is particularly effective for series collectors who are systematically upgrading their sets.

Regrade Submissions

If a coin comes back at a lower grade than expected, PCGS offers a regrade service where you can submit the coin again for a second opinion. This is cheaper than a full resubmission and can sometimes result in a grade increase.

Variety Attribution

When submitting Shield Nickels, always request variety attribution. PCGS recognizes many Shield Nickel varieties, and having the variety noted on the label can significantly increase the coin’s collectibility and value. The 1867 with Rays has numerous known repunched date varieties, and even if your coin doesn’t match a known variety, the attribution process ensures it’s been thoroughly examined.

Market Timing

The coin market is cyclical. Submitting during strong market conditions—when buyers are active and prices are rising—maximizes your chances of a favorable outcome. Conversely, submitting during market downturns can result in lower grades as graders may be more conservative.

Conclusion: The 1867 Shield Nickel with Rays as a Case Study in Crossover Strategy

The 1867 Shield Nickel with Rays featured in our forum discussion represents everything that makes the crack-out game both exciting and challenging. It’s a historically significant coin from a short-lived series, exhibiting dramatic die characteristics that set it apart from typical examples. Its CACG MS63 grade, while accurate, may not fully capture its market potential in a PCGS holder.

As someone who does this work every day, I see coins like this constantly—pieces that deserve a second look, a second chance, and perhaps a second opinion. The key is knowing when to make that calculated gamble and when to let the coin rest in its current holder.

For collectors and investors considering the crack-out game, my advice is simple: do your homework, understand the market, and never crack out based on emotion alone. The plastic holder may be holding your coin back—or it may be protecting you from a costly mistake. The difference between the two is knowledge, experience, and a clear-eyed assessment of risk versus reward.

The 1867 Shield Nickel with Rays remains one of the most fascinating and challenging series in American numismatics. Whether you’re a seasoned collector or a newcomer to the hobby, understanding the crossover grading dynamics of this series can help you make smarter buying, selling, and holding decisions. And if you ever find yourself staring at a coin in a plastic holder, wondering if it deserves a second chance—well, that’s when you call in a crack-out artist.

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